Auspundits

Drums In The Deep

I sent the following (after some minor modifications) in an email to a few friends with regards to this post by Richard Fernandez at The Belmont Club. I will post some of the responses over the next few days.

Richard posted:

...this new crisis comes [NORKs retreating from nuclear deal with the U.S.] on the heels of Georgia and events in Pakistan. About the only good news is ironically from Iraq. What’s going on? The question is whether we are still in the End of History, at “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow, and our planet began to heal,” or whether the stars are veiled; a sleepless malice is stirring, and a new menace is taking shape, not for the last time but in our time.

I agree something is up. But more likely to be confluence of interests than a veiled malice. I think I was only recently reading that the NORKs had crossed the rubicon in terms of sustainability. By NORKs I mean the head honchos. Something about murmurs that the military are going to depose the Great Leader. Seems like the NORKs want some immediate liquidity. And Americans and Europeans are focused on the Caucuses and Pakistan and Iran. Hence the NORKs more brazen and confident.

Agree that we could be seeing the black swan moment in international affairs of the 21st century unfolding. If it does occur, then it will make September 11 pale in comparison. The Europeans may need to dust off those sabres yet.

The Syrian Nuclear Program

Here are two great discussions of some of the issues surrounding the Syrian nuclear program:

• One is by Con Coughlin, foreign editor of the U.K.'s Daily Telegraph, who presents some arguments explaining Israel's unusual reticence in discussing its successful attack on a nuclear weapons facility deep into Syrian territory.
• The other is by Wretchard at The Belmont Club. He notes that Syria's desire for nuclear arms is its own form of strategic deterrence "...against Western interference under whose protection they could advance their terrorist forces without hindrance".

I have some outstanding questions though:

• What of the speculation at the time that the Israeli bombing of the nascent Syrian nuclear weapons facility "were a diversion for a daring Israeli commando raid, in which nuclear materials were intercepted en route to Iran and hauled to Israel"?
• Or what of the speculation based on "well-placed sources" that instead, Israeli commandos had snared nuclear material from the plant and had it checked by the U.S. PRIOR to the air strikes being called in? This is particularly interesting, given that U.S. intelligence publicised in the last few days have suggested the bombing occurred before the Syrians had a chance to transport nuclear material to the facility.

Given the secrecy behind all of this, I doubt we will find out any time soon But the conflicting news reporting on this should raise at least a few eyebrows.

Update 28/04/08 10:10PM AEST: Let me point out an incongruency vis-a-vis Syria's response to Israel's bombing. Israel bombs Syrian nuclear weapons installation that, according to the most recent reports and intelligence, had no fissile material therein. What stopped Syria from violently protesting that the evil Jews had levelled an fertiliser or pharmaceutical plant? If fissile material was therein, a bombing of the plant would have led to a clear radioactive footprint with fissile material being scattered everywhere. Which could help explain why the Syrians bulldozed the bombed facility and built another larger building on top within a matter of months. The synthesis of this? My guess is that there was in fact fissile material in the facility at the time of the bombing. This would reconcile earlier reports that Israeli commandos took samples from the plant. Cloak and daggers indeed. Why the U.S. may have chosen to present intelligence to the contrary in the last few days is interesting. Perhaps to avoid heat being put on the U.S. to withdraw from the six-party talks with the NORKs?

Good news aplenty

1. Burma opens up talks with US and opposition groups after a huge round up of dissidents over the last couple of days;
2. Musharraf agrees to power sharing arrangement with Bhutto;
3. NORKs and South Koreas get the ball rolling on signing a formal peace declaration;
4. More dated, the Israeli penetration of Syrian air defenses (that are supposedly more advanced than Iran's!) and their covert interdiction from a Syrian military complex, of nuclear material;
5. Antarctic ozone hole has shrunk by 30%.

Rogue States

This is the first post by Polar Bear, a new contributor to Auspundits.

Marxist Historicism envisaged the “withering away” of the state, following the triumph of the proletariat. Yet Communist totalitarianism and its fascist counterpart saw the apparent apotheosis of state power.

Peace on the Korean Peninsula?

This almost knocked me out of my chair when I first read it. The NORKs and the South Koreans talking about formally ending the Korean War? Let's not paper over the NORK leader Kim Jong-il's reputation for breaking his word. Nor the recent news that NORK nuclear material/warheads were interdicted by the Israelis in Syria. Could this be the grandest of all bluffs?