Auspundits

Energy & Environmental Politics

I have long argued that were leftist governments (including our very own Kevin '07 - notwithstanding its aversion to the label) paying more than just lip service to environmentalism, they would act aggressively to implement a carbon tax. Yet, they have not. Dithering has been their hallmark. Consider Britain. Or Australia. That's because, when the average bloke on the street has to put his money on the line, he smells a snake oil salesman. Increasing the price of energy is not a winner it seems.

So what explains the public's discomfort or reluctance, in the face of a 600% increase in crude oil prices over the last decade and a war against jihadists funded by oil sheikhs, to support development of oil fields in their own nations?

Bakken Reserves - On The USGS Results

Westhawk has some analysis of the U.S. Geological Survey's Bakken Field survey. In summary:

• Bakken's recoverable oil was estimated to be in the vicinity of 150 million barrels in 1995. The USGS results released in April indicated 3.5 billion recoverable barrels. This upgrade in the formation's potential was based on a relatively small number of test wells and on the improvements in horizontal extraction technologies.
• Bakken's oil is easy to refine, is in a geologically and environmentally stable location. No hurricanes, earthquakes, &c.

Quoting Westhawk:

Should Bakken live up to this hypothetical potential, the economic and national security implications would be significant. Production from the Bakken formation could create a large positive swing in the U.S. balance of payments. This would open up decision-making flexibility for U.S. economic policymakers. And in the national security realm, future U.S. presidents would have more policy options available for their consideration as they contemplate problems such as Iran.

In other energy related news, the U.S. may be well along the road to building the first new oil refinery in 30 years. About bloody time.

H/T: Moose.

Energy & Geopolitics

Just under two months ago, I noted that Dick Cheney had gone to Saudi Arabia to discuss oil only a month or so after his boss, the President of the United States visited the Kingdom, groveling for more. On this second visit, Cheney did not go to discuss the bandwidth of Saudi oil pipelines. Rather, he went armed to deliver an ultimatum of sorts: pump more crude, or we start turning coal to oil. Well, looks like the rhetoric has been ratcheted a notch.

The Five Faces Of Darkness

Despite the setbacks that God has inflicted upon us, these painful blows will mark the beginning of the wiping out of America and the infidel West after the passing of tens of years, God willing. - Osama bin Laden, 17 December 2001

Bakken Reserves - The Results

Its about 3 billion barrels of oil. Much lower than the high estimate of 200 billion that some have been suggesting. But it does appear as though the US Geological Survey (USGS) has been conservative in coming to its estimates, basing their result on current viable technology. Stay tuned for further information. No move in light crude oil futures overnight. Nor should there really be. It will take years for this stuff to come on market. And then there is the refining capacity bottleneck, partly thanks to the environmental movements scaremongering.

For Peak Oil Mongerers

Tommorrow is an important day. We will be given revised estimates of recoverable barrels of oil from the Bakken oil shale repositories in North Dakota, United States. Estimates have ranged from 10 billion barrels to 500 billion barrels (representing 1% to 50% recoverability).

If the higher estimate of 500 billion barrels is realised then that would be double the known reserves of Saudi Arabia. I think this news coupled with the USAF's push to used liquid coal and some really cool ideas about how liquify coal indicates OPEC's monopoly is about to be broken along with our reliance on crackpot dictators like King Abdullah and Hugo Chavez.

The future is looking brighter.

Coal & Money

As we reported here a week ago, James Hansen, NASA's "top climate scientist", recently wrote to the Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, asking him to halt the Australian production and export of coal. He is at it again:

in a paper to be submitted to Science magazine tomorrow, Mr Hansen called for the phasing out all coal-fired plants by 2030, taxing their emissions until then, and banning the building of new plants unless they were designed to trap and segregate the carbon dioxide they emit.

Well, there have been some studies done recently about the cost that cutting emissions would have to the Australian economy: $430 billion dollars by 2050. Well, this news should make that number balloon even further:

European and Asian steel mills have agreeing a trebling in premium hard coking coal prices to around $US305 a tonne...Japanese [as in Kyoto, as in Kyoto protocol] utilities have agreed to a more than doubling in Australian thermal coal prices to $US125 a tonne, up from $US56 a tonne.

Some of this increase will be temporary due to the effects of the flood on coal output. However, given the stickiness of coal prices and price power of the buyers, and the fact that Australian producers have just scored a massive increase in prices, some of this price increase will persist. That news to make enough inner city hippies get high on hope...i mean dope.

Meanwhile, some fearless commentary by the independent Reserve Bank Governor: households will have to deal with carbon induced poverty for Australia to meet its emissions targets.

And some good old lefty whining by Dr Hansen after receiving an award for his scientific work describing (or promoting) global warming:

Mr Hansen used his award to again rail against the US Government and accuse fossil fuel industries of trying to hide the extent of the global warming crisis.

Cheney Tangos With Saudi King *BUMPED*

Over the last three months, the two most powerful men in the world, U.S. president George Bush and U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, have visited Riyadh. At both meetings, energy security (read, oil) was discussed. With the price of crude oil persisting over $US100/barrel, this should not be a big surprise. During the first meeting, it was well publicized that U.S. President Bush requested the Saudis loosen their oil spigots and pump more crude on the world market, only to be rejected. Some even called the request groveling. Not so the second meeting Cheney attended. This time, Cheney came armed. No one tells the U.S. where to go.

A Brief Look At Climate Change Subsidies

Minister for Climate Change, Penny Wong, has alerted households and businesses that they will be paying significantly more for energy as she wacks homes with an energy tax. This could explain why Rudd's razor gang is super keen on cutting billions from government spending and reduce/wind back tax cuts: they need to fund their climate tax subsidy to "working class" families from some kitty.

Unfortunately, this is a terrible idea compounded on a terrible idea. Here's why.

Some Weekend Tech Readings

A few more light-hearted readings on this sunny Sydney day (finally!):

• The 3G iPhone may be released at the end of this year in the U.S.. Which means release sometime during the first half of the 2009 calendar year in Australia.
• Has the perpetual motion machine already been built? It's purported developer has no scientific degree. Not that that has been a problem in centuries gone by. Also, he is a greenie. Which may be the more salient fact. We all know that lefties like to make stuff up.