The Real Crash

* By Polar Bear

The Baltic Dry Index has now fallen to 815. Back in June, 2008, it stood at 11,793. In any language, this is a massive contraction in the movement of raw materials for manufacturing. Currently, fund managers and other stock market participants are paying no heed. I am not a forecaster, but one might observe that bear markets, in their early stages, are crowded with optimists.

Here are the latest "Big Money" poll results as reported by Barrons for Monday November 3:

Read the rest of the article.

An article in The Wall Street Journal suggests that stocks look cheap world-wide. On the basis of reported earnings up until recent months, this might seem a reasonable proposition. On the other hand, one could observe that June 30, 2008, the end of our last financial year, is, as they say of the past, another country.

Finally, we should beware of advice from experts who failed to see the warning signs of a bear market in the first place.

Comments

[Manny]

Well, I think we all agree that we have bias toward optimism. It's my humble belief that those of us with pessimistic biases have some wires crossed.