Florida GOP Polls - Bumped!

Many commentators have been noting the random nature of the polls in the GOP primary. Some polls have Romney leading McCain by 5 points and others McCain ahead of Romney by 5 points. The RCP average shows McCain with a 1 point lead.

And this inconsistency has been running for almost a week. However, something interesting has been happening in the Prediction Markets. There has been a strong inversion away from McCain to Romney over the same period with Romney leading McCain by 18% at Rasmussen Markets and by 12% at Intrade. Thats a turnaround of more than 20 percent in Romney's favour over the space of a week. Do the Prediction Markets know something the polls don't?

Update 25/01/08 12:00PM AEST: Maybe the Prediction Markets are reflecting Thompson bowing out?

Update 30/01/08 12:00PM AEST: Prediction Markets are swinging wildly as first exit polls and first precincts are counted. Romney's had ten plus point swings against him (after exit polls release) and for him (after first precincts report). Sitting at 38% at the moment on Intrade. McCain is back ahead as counting continues in the real poll.

Update 30/01/08 07:00PM AEST: McCain wins. And with that win most likely seals the GOP nomination. And with that probably leaves many conservatives at home come election time. Romney has the money to power through to the convention, but even then he is unlikely to win enough delegates to challenge McCain. Guiliani is expected to endorse McCain. Although we heard the same when Fred Thompson was expected to leave the field. Hopefully not. The GOP is heading into a long period of introspection apropos its direction. Where's Newt?