Interesting Times

This article comes from an esteemed collegue of mine, Ben Ze'ev:

Yesterday was perhaps one of the most fast-paced news days in recent times. And these were interesting times to begin with. Much happened, all part of the War, most of it in the Middle East, and most of it arising from President Bush's "Surge" speech.

Lets start locally.

The Sheikh put his foot in it. Again. And we were appalled. Again. And the usual suspects rose up to protect him. Again.

The Australian Muslim community still prefers the "strong" message that their choice of sheikh is their business and not ours. I agree. They are also content with a complete lunatic representing them. This is the part that concerns me. Lets see what doo-doo he steps in next, and watch the taqqiyya, accusations of victimisation and veiled threats fly. Or look in the other direction and see an Australia that is increasingly aware of just what kind of people the Sheikh's supporters really are, and how numerous, vocal, strong and representative they are of the wider Muslim community.

Were other things not afoot, this would be the story of the day. This story has already all but disappeared today, thanks to bigger things afoot elsewhere. But the point has been made. Channel 9 at least has dared go where the Aussie MSM has not dared go before, thanks to Andrew Bolt.

The more important Other Things today are Bush's "Surge", its promises, and its consequences. The promises look good, and the consequences have already started to roll in.

The least interesting part of this whole thing is the "Surge" itself, a relatively insignificant boost in troop numbers that will achieve precisely nothing in terms of its stated aims of "bringing security to the Iraqi people". The problem here is that apart from the one or two frightened pro-Western Iraqis remaining in Baghdad the Iraqis are NOT OUR FRIENDS. The mythical Iraqi who loves the "liberators" and seeks a quiet life exists, but in a frightened minority. The non-mythical Iraqi who loves us lives quietly in Kurdistan, which for all intents and purposes is another country.

The real Iraq, Arab Iraq, has been fed a steady diet of Arabism, stone-age tribalism, Islamism and anti-Western Al Jazeera rubbish. As a result Sunni, Shia, Baathist whatever, Ph.D. or goat herd,  they all hate us. And each other. Malikis' government are Shia theocrats in league with Al Sadr. The Sunnis have also imported homicidal maniacs from all over the world who do not want anyone to be comfortable: Somalias, Waziristans and Afghanistans are what they want, stone age Caliphates, not rule of law.

20,000 more troops are not going to restore rule of law in Baghdad or anywhere else. This mini-surge is too little, too late.

But there may be good news too.  I suspect that the "surge" is mostly a red herring, something for the Democrats to chew on while the real game is much bigger and better thought out. Lets consider the rest of the new "surge" strategy. Most of this was only announced in the last couple of days, and about half of it is rumour. The volume of media chatter is noteworthy regardless:

1. Massive carrier fleet build-up in the Persian Gulf;
2. Transfer of Patriot missles to allies (not Israel, Kuwait or Saudi, they already have them);
3. A covert war against Hezbollah;
4. A covert war against Iran and Syria;
5. Open accusation of Pakaistan harbouring Al Qaeda by senior official Negroponte (with predictable "who, us?" reaction from Pakistan);
6. Open confrontation of ALL Iraqi militias, not just Sunnis;
7. Harsh warning to Maliki (I wonder if he studied the fate of Diem in Vietnam...)

Also consider actual events in the last two days:

1. Maliki tells his Mahdi goon friends that he can't protect them;
2. A UFO crash in Iran ?;
3. Rocket attack on US embassy in Greece.Yes they weren't Islamists, but the left and the ROP have been rather cosy lately, and the timing is interesting regardless.
4. Iranian "consulate" raided by US troops in Arbil.
5. Hezbollah escalating attempt to topple government in Lebanon

And most importantly:Oil price drops dramatically. Even as Iran threatens to block the Straits of Hormuz. Looks like the market at least believes that daddy's home, and this  can only be good for oil security, whatever threat the Iranians may make.

That's what a fast news day looks like.

Lets hope Bush stays the course here. What would that look like? Here is my wish list:

1. There will be a whole lot more fast news days, full of "unexplained" events - explosions, disappearances, commando      raids in Iran, Lebanon and Syria;
2. Maliki will resign, as his balancing act beween the US and Iran will become untenable.
3. If the Iraqi government does not play ball, it will be replaced, and the constitution amended to create a secular state under a Kurdish leadership with secular Shia and non-Baathist, non-tribal secular Sunni leadership.
4. US will make unapologetic air strikes and commando raids into Pakistan. Musharraf's protests will be ignored
5. More Iranians will be captured in Iraq. They will not be handed over to the government and some may wind up in Guantanamo Bay
6. Unapologetic hot pursuit over the Pakistani, Syrian and Iranian borders will become commonplace, as will engagements with the security forces of those countries. This will escalate to proactive cross-border raids by special forces, and then regular troops and air support.
7. New militias will appear in Iran and Syria. They will be surprisingly well funded, armed and trained. They will have excellent media arms and representatives in the United States.
8. Formerly hardline and radical leaders of governments and militias across the Middle East will start behaving in rather uncharacteristic and accommodating ways.
9. Middle East Christians will stop leaving

if only...